Research
Research on macro, spot, volatility and options, from SignalPlus and the institutions we work with.
Macro Daily: 6 October 2026
The Fed is expected to hold in October, while markets price a modest, back‑loaded \~35 bp of additional tightening by late January 2027 as of Oct 6, 2026.
Macro Daily: 5 October 2026
Markets lean toward a hold in October with modest, back‑loaded tightening priced into late 2026–early 2027, while the policy rate trades near the range midpoint and corridor mechanics remain orderly.
Macro Daily: 4 October 2026
Markets price no move at the October FOMC and a modest, back‑loaded tightening bias into year‑end, while the EFFR remains anchored near the target midpoint and money‑market plumbing looks orderly.
BTC Vol — Week in Review 20–27Jul
BTC/USD +1.9% ($64,150-> $65,350), ETH/USD +5.9% ($1,860 -> $1,970). BTC (and ETH) spot price action continued to showed relative strength last week, in-line with the broader technical picture that we have been tracking for the past few weeks.
BTC Vol — Week in Review 13–20Jul
BTC/USD +2.0% ($62,900-> $64,150), ETH/USD +4.2% ($1,785 -> $1,860). BTC (and ETH) spot price action showed relative strength last week, in-line with the broader technical picture that we have been tracking for the past few weeks but also boosted by increasing hopes of progress on Clarity Act ahead of Congress’s summer recess from 8Aug onwards.
BTC Vol — Week in Review 6–13Jul
BTC/USD +0.0% ($62,900-> $62,900), ETH/USD +1.1% ($1,765 -> $1,785). Spot price action showed consolidation last week, in-line with the broader technical picture that we have been tracking for the past few weeks.
BTC Vol — Week in Review 29Jun -6Jul
BTC/USD +4.8% ($60,000-> $62,900), ETH/USD +11.7% ($1,580 -> $1,765). Spot price action felt somewhat contained last week, as we tested the local lows ~$58k without triggering any panic put hedging/buying, leaving us with a strong sense that positioning overall is much lighter down here.
BTC Vol — Weeks in Review 22–29Jun
BTC/USD -6.5% ($64,200-> $60,000), ETH/USD -8.9% ($1,735 -> $1,580). Spot price action continues to suggest we are in a flat corrective “B” wave and remains “consistent” with a 3,3,5 count.
BTC Vol — Weeks in Review 18May — 1Jun
BTC/USD -5.5% ($77,000-> $72,750), ETH/USD -6.6% ($2,120 -> $1,980). The momentum higher in spot has waned over the last couple of weeks, retracing back through some local support levels.
BTC Vol — Week in Review 11–18May
BTC/USD -4.7% ($80,800-> $77,000), ETH/USD -9.0% ($2,330 -> $2,120). Price action remains reasonably consistent with a broad consolidation phase, noting decent support below at $76–75k and then again at $74k.
SignalPlus Weekly Commentary: Back to Work?
Macro assets had a tough run last week, with Nasdaq suffering its worst weekly loss since Liberation Day in April, dragged down by concerns over a deflating AI bubble and disappointing economic data.
BTC Vol — Weeks in Review 22Sep — 6Oct
BTC/USD +9.2% ($113,000 -> $123,450), ETH/USD +8.6% ($4,180-> $4,540). A very sharp and fast move back to test and make new highs in the past week, after probing down to $108k on the month/quarter end rebalances the week prior.